Whereas (UMich) financial sentiment (preliminary) falls.
Determine 1: College of Michigan Client Sentiment (blue, left scale), Convention Board Client Confidence (tan, left scale), Gallup Financial Confidence (gentle inexperienced, left scale), all demeaned and normalized by normal deviation (for the 1995-2024 pattern interval); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Day by day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The U.Mich sentiment index for Might is preliminary. The Information Index remark for Might is thru 5/25/2025. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: U.Mich through FRED, Convention Board through Investing.com, Gallup, SF Fed, NBER, and creator’s calculations.
Right here’s a element:
Determine 2: College of Michigan Client Sentiment (blue, left scale), Convention Board Client Confidence (tan, left scale), Gallup Financial Confidence (gentle inexperienced, left scale), all demeaned and normalized by normal deviation (for the 2023-2024 pattern interval); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Day by day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The U.Mich sentiment index for Might is preliminary. The Information Index remark for Might is thru 5/25/2025. Supply: U.Mich through FRED, Convention Board through Investing.com, Gallup, SF Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Given the well-known partisan part of the sentiment indicator, I believed it of curiosity to see how effectively Democratic/lean Democrat survey respondents reply to financial information (as measured by the SF Fed index) vs Republican/lean Republican. For the 2016M01-2025M05 interval, it seems Republican/lean Republican sentiment is just about impervious to financial information.
Then again, Democratic/lean Democratic respondents sentiment covaries with financial information with statistical significance (and far larger R2).
Right here’s a plot of the information:
Determine 3: College of Michigan Client Sentiment for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), for Republican/lean Republican (purple, left scale), and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Day by day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The U.Mich sentiment index for Might is preliminary. The Information Index remark for Might is thru 5/25/2025. Supply: U.Mich through FRED, SF Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Whereas (UMich) financial sentiment (preliminary) falls.
Determine 1: College of Michigan Client Sentiment (blue, left scale), Convention Board Client Confidence (tan, left scale), Gallup Financial Confidence (gentle inexperienced, left scale), all demeaned and normalized by normal deviation (for the 1995-2024 pattern interval); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Day by day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The U.Mich sentiment index for Might is preliminary. The Information Index remark for Might is thru 5/25/2025. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: U.Mich through FRED, Convention Board through Investing.com, Gallup, SF Fed, NBER, and creator’s calculations.
Right here’s a element:
Determine 2: College of Michigan Client Sentiment (blue, left scale), Convention Board Client Confidence (tan, left scale), Gallup Financial Confidence (gentle inexperienced, left scale), all demeaned and normalized by normal deviation (for the 2023-2024 pattern interval); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Day by day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The U.Mich sentiment index for Might is preliminary. The Information Index remark for Might is thru 5/25/2025. Supply: U.Mich through FRED, Convention Board through Investing.com, Gallup, SF Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Given the well-known partisan part of the sentiment indicator, I believed it of curiosity to see how effectively Democratic/lean Democrat survey respondents reply to financial information (as measured by the SF Fed index) vs Republican/lean Republican. For the 2016M01-2025M05 interval, it seems Republican/lean Republican sentiment is just about impervious to financial information.
Then again, Democratic/lean Democratic respondents sentiment covaries with financial information with statistical significance (and far larger R2).
Right here’s a plot of the information:
Determine 3: College of Michigan Client Sentiment for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), for Republican/lean Republican (purple, left scale), and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Day by day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The U.Mich sentiment index for Might is preliminary. The Information Index remark for Might is thru 5/25/2025. Supply: U.Mich through FRED, SF Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Whereas (UMich) financial sentiment (preliminary) falls.
Determine 1: College of Michigan Client Sentiment (blue, left scale), Convention Board Client Confidence (tan, left scale), Gallup Financial Confidence (gentle inexperienced, left scale), all demeaned and normalized by normal deviation (for the 1995-2024 pattern interval); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Day by day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The U.Mich sentiment index for Might is preliminary. The Information Index remark for Might is thru 5/25/2025. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: U.Mich through FRED, Convention Board through Investing.com, Gallup, SF Fed, NBER, and creator’s calculations.
Right here’s a element:
Determine 2: College of Michigan Client Sentiment (blue, left scale), Convention Board Client Confidence (tan, left scale), Gallup Financial Confidence (gentle inexperienced, left scale), all demeaned and normalized by normal deviation (for the 2023-2024 pattern interval); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Day by day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The U.Mich sentiment index for Might is preliminary. The Information Index remark for Might is thru 5/25/2025. Supply: U.Mich through FRED, Convention Board through Investing.com, Gallup, SF Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Given the well-known partisan part of the sentiment indicator, I believed it of curiosity to see how effectively Democratic/lean Democrat survey respondents reply to financial information (as measured by the SF Fed index) vs Republican/lean Republican. For the 2016M01-2025M05 interval, it seems Republican/lean Republican sentiment is just about impervious to financial information.
Then again, Democratic/lean Democratic respondents sentiment covaries with financial information with statistical significance (and far larger R2).
Right here’s a plot of the information:
Determine 3: College of Michigan Client Sentiment for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), for Republican/lean Republican (purple, left scale), and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Day by day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The U.Mich sentiment index for Might is preliminary. The Information Index remark for Might is thru 5/25/2025. Supply: U.Mich through FRED, SF Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Whereas (UMich) financial sentiment (preliminary) falls.
Determine 1: College of Michigan Client Sentiment (blue, left scale), Convention Board Client Confidence (tan, left scale), Gallup Financial Confidence (gentle inexperienced, left scale), all demeaned and normalized by normal deviation (for the 1995-2024 pattern interval); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Day by day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The U.Mich sentiment index for Might is preliminary. The Information Index remark for Might is thru 5/25/2025. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: U.Mich through FRED, Convention Board through Investing.com, Gallup, SF Fed, NBER, and creator’s calculations.
Right here’s a element:
Determine 2: College of Michigan Client Sentiment (blue, left scale), Convention Board Client Confidence (tan, left scale), Gallup Financial Confidence (gentle inexperienced, left scale), all demeaned and normalized by normal deviation (for the 2023-2024 pattern interval); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Day by day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The U.Mich sentiment index for Might is preliminary. The Information Index remark for Might is thru 5/25/2025. Supply: U.Mich through FRED, Convention Board through Investing.com, Gallup, SF Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Given the well-known partisan part of the sentiment indicator, I believed it of curiosity to see how effectively Democratic/lean Democrat survey respondents reply to financial information (as measured by the SF Fed index) vs Republican/lean Republican. For the 2016M01-2025M05 interval, it seems Republican/lean Republican sentiment is just about impervious to financial information.
Then again, Democratic/lean Democratic respondents sentiment covaries with financial information with statistical significance (and far larger R2).
Right here’s a plot of the information:
Determine 3: College of Michigan Client Sentiment for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), for Republican/lean Republican (purple, left scale), and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Day by day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The U.Mich sentiment index for Might is preliminary. The Information Index remark for Might is thru 5/25/2025. Supply: U.Mich through FRED, SF Fed, and creator’s calculations.
