South Africa needs to be way more involved concerning the world influence of a commerce warfare between the world’s greatest economies, the US and China, than the shorter-term influence of the Trump administration’s tariffs on exports to the US.
That is the phrase from Matthew Stern, director and head of commerce and regional integration at DNA Economics, talking at a PSG Suppose Large webinar on Wednesday on the subject ‘Trump, tariffs and commerce’.
ADVERTISEMENT
CONTINUE READING BELOW
Learn/hear:
Trump to signal order easing auto tariff influence
Tariffs have basically nullified Agoa – Tau
China seeks to up SA agri product imports
US President Donald Trump despatched shockwaves by the world on 2 April when he introduced a brand new tariff technique geared toward correcting what he perceives as a long time of unfair buying and selling relationships that drawback American producers and employees.
This included a ten% tariff on all imports to the US from all nations besides Canada and Mexico, and extra country-specific tariffs primarily based on perceived unfair commerce practices focusing on roughly 60 nations.
A commerce warfare ensued between:
- The US, which has imposed tariffs of as much as 145% on most imports from China; and
- China, which has imposed tariffs of 125% on US items in retaliation.
These excessive tariff ranges have created a mutual commerce embargo between the 2 largest economies on the earth.
Nearer to house, Trump imposed a 31% levy on items imported from South Africa, which, in keeping with Minister of Commerce, Business and Competitors Parks Tau, is tantamount to “nullifying” the African Progress and Alternative Act (Agoa).
Learn: Tariffs have basically nullified Agoa – Tau
South Africa has been one among a number of nations on the African continent which have benefitted from the act because it got here into impact in 2000, which gave it preferential entry to the US markets.
Agoa’s significance ‘overplayed’
In response to Stern, Agoa isn’t the “elephant within the room”, however quite how the widespread tariff imposition on nations across the globe will play out on the earth economic system.
“Agoa is mostly overplayed. Sure, it has robust political significance in being a helpful stick that People have wielded over the previous 20 years. However in financial phrases – and definitely in commerce phrases – it’s not that vital for South Africa.”
Stern factors out that about 25% of South Africa’s exports to the US are coming into the nation below Agoa.
“And even then, the preferences that we obtain by Agoa – the decrease tariff that we obtain relative to what we in any other case would have obtained on these exports – aren’t notably massive.”
He acknowledges that motorcar exports and agricultural produce are actually susceptible and that it might disrupt some provides.
“Dropping Agoa could be an irritation, nevertheless it wouldn’t have devastating financial results.”
In distinction, the broader implications of a US-China commerce warfare, together with disruptions to world provide chains and financial development, pose a a lot larger risk to South Africa’s economic system, he warns.
He pointed to the Worldwide Financial Fund’s latest downward revision of South Africa’s development forecast as proof of this.
Pay attention/learn: SA’s 2025 GDP forecast’ approach under’ what Treasury expects
“As of this week, we’ve already seen the IMF halve their forecast development fee for South Africa for the following 12 months, from a paltry 2% to round 1%. That’s a 1% lower that we are able to’t afford.”
Susceptible sectors
Stern says South Africa’s motorcar and citrus sectors are notably susceptible to the brand new tariffs.
“Automobiles benefitted from Agoa and would proceed if Agoa will get wiped off the desk, however the sector goes to be in extreme bother if the 25% tariff, because it’s at the moment being utilized, continues.
“As for citrus, a good chunk goes to the US, and it’s going to be troublesome to shift these exports to different markets, as a result of provide chains are difficult. So, sure corporations which can be deeply invested, notably within the citrus sector, are going to be impacted most,” Stern notes.
ADVERTISEMENT:
CONTINUE READING BELOW
Learn: Volkswagen earnings plunge 40% as US tariffs cloud outlook
Little negotiation room
Stern notes that South Africa’s means to barter beneficial commerce offers with the US is constrained by its comparatively small share of US imports.
“I don’t assume we’re going to be of giant strategic precedence. We’re a small marketplace for them throughout all sectors, and it’s the political pursuits that appear to predominate.”
He expects the US to boost political, quite than financial points, if and when a South African delegation meets with the Trump administration.
Learn:
US, SA to reportedly maintain commerce talks this week
Trump indicators US will skip SA G20 over land claims
“And that’s going to make it actually troublesome for us to seek out one another, at the very least by some type of commerce settlement.”
Exploring the EU, China, India, and Brics-plus
In response to the challenges posed by the tariffs, Stern says South Africa ought to urgently diversify its commerce relationships and discover new markets.
The European Union (EU) stays South Africa’s largest buying and selling accomplice, and strengthening this relationship is “an excellent place to start out”.
“We have already got a deep historic relationship with the EU. They’ve reached out to us, and what was lately fairly a frosty relationship has all of the sudden turn into tremendous pleasant,” he says.
Learn: Tariff hikes: Hunt for brand new agricultural markets should start now
Moreover, South Africa ought to concentrate on enhancing commerce ties with China and India, each of that are among the many fastest-growing economies globally.
“We export two or three merchandise to them, nevertheless it’s principally commodity-based. So we must always begin partaking with new potential buying and selling companions, notably India, to seek out methods to shift a few of what we at the moment export to the US into these newer, and faster-growing markets,” Stern suggests.
There’s additionally vital potential for regional commerce. “We have now a nascent free commerce settlement [the African Continental Free Trade Agreement] in place throughout all of Africa. Investing extra effort and time in coping with excellent obstacles to commerce in Africa is equally vital.”
The Brics-plus grouping additionally gives potential for deeper financial collaboration, though current commerce agreements inside Brics are very restricted.
“We have now no commerce settlement with any Brics nation of any substance. Now may be a good suggestion to start out desirous about that.”
In gentle of those challenges, South Africa must shift its narrative from merely assessing the harm brought on by Trump’s tariffs to figuring out new alternatives.
“Our evaluation wants to maneuver on from the ‘destruction’ and we must always begin to consider the place a few of these openings and new alternatives would possibly emerge on account of the worldwide shifts.”
Pay attention/learn: US tariffs might devastate Japanese Cape auto sector
Observe Moneyweb’s in-depth finance and enterprise information on WhatsApp right here.
South Africa needs to be way more involved concerning the world influence of a commerce warfare between the world’s greatest economies, the US and China, than the shorter-term influence of the Trump administration’s tariffs on exports to the US.
That is the phrase from Matthew Stern, director and head of commerce and regional integration at DNA Economics, talking at a PSG Suppose Large webinar on Wednesday on the subject ‘Trump, tariffs and commerce’.
ADVERTISEMENT
CONTINUE READING BELOW
Learn/hear:
Trump to signal order easing auto tariff influence
Tariffs have basically nullified Agoa – Tau
China seeks to up SA agri product imports
US President Donald Trump despatched shockwaves by the world on 2 April when he introduced a brand new tariff technique geared toward correcting what he perceives as a long time of unfair buying and selling relationships that drawback American producers and employees.
This included a ten% tariff on all imports to the US from all nations besides Canada and Mexico, and extra country-specific tariffs primarily based on perceived unfair commerce practices focusing on roughly 60 nations.
A commerce warfare ensued between:
- The US, which has imposed tariffs of as much as 145% on most imports from China; and
- China, which has imposed tariffs of 125% on US items in retaliation.
These excessive tariff ranges have created a mutual commerce embargo between the 2 largest economies on the earth.
Nearer to house, Trump imposed a 31% levy on items imported from South Africa, which, in keeping with Minister of Commerce, Business and Competitors Parks Tau, is tantamount to “nullifying” the African Progress and Alternative Act (Agoa).
Learn: Tariffs have basically nullified Agoa – Tau
South Africa has been one among a number of nations on the African continent which have benefitted from the act because it got here into impact in 2000, which gave it preferential entry to the US markets.
Agoa’s significance ‘overplayed’
In response to Stern, Agoa isn’t the “elephant within the room”, however quite how the widespread tariff imposition on nations across the globe will play out on the earth economic system.
“Agoa is mostly overplayed. Sure, it has robust political significance in being a helpful stick that People have wielded over the previous 20 years. However in financial phrases – and definitely in commerce phrases – it’s not that vital for South Africa.”
Stern factors out that about 25% of South Africa’s exports to the US are coming into the nation below Agoa.
“And even then, the preferences that we obtain by Agoa – the decrease tariff that we obtain relative to what we in any other case would have obtained on these exports – aren’t notably massive.”
He acknowledges that motorcar exports and agricultural produce are actually susceptible and that it might disrupt some provides.
“Dropping Agoa could be an irritation, nevertheless it wouldn’t have devastating financial results.”
In distinction, the broader implications of a US-China commerce warfare, together with disruptions to world provide chains and financial development, pose a a lot larger risk to South Africa’s economic system, he warns.
He pointed to the Worldwide Financial Fund’s latest downward revision of South Africa’s development forecast as proof of this.
Pay attention/learn: SA’s 2025 GDP forecast’ approach under’ what Treasury expects
“As of this week, we’ve already seen the IMF halve their forecast development fee for South Africa for the following 12 months, from a paltry 2% to round 1%. That’s a 1% lower that we are able to’t afford.”
Susceptible sectors
Stern says South Africa’s motorcar and citrus sectors are notably susceptible to the brand new tariffs.
“Automobiles benefitted from Agoa and would proceed if Agoa will get wiped off the desk, however the sector goes to be in extreme bother if the 25% tariff, because it’s at the moment being utilized, continues.
“As for citrus, a good chunk goes to the US, and it’s going to be troublesome to shift these exports to different markets, as a result of provide chains are difficult. So, sure corporations which can be deeply invested, notably within the citrus sector, are going to be impacted most,” Stern notes.
ADVERTISEMENT:
CONTINUE READING BELOW
Learn: Volkswagen earnings plunge 40% as US tariffs cloud outlook
Little negotiation room
Stern notes that South Africa’s means to barter beneficial commerce offers with the US is constrained by its comparatively small share of US imports.
“I don’t assume we’re going to be of giant strategic precedence. We’re a small marketplace for them throughout all sectors, and it’s the political pursuits that appear to predominate.”
He expects the US to boost political, quite than financial points, if and when a South African delegation meets with the Trump administration.
Learn:
US, SA to reportedly maintain commerce talks this week
Trump indicators US will skip SA G20 over land claims
“And that’s going to make it actually troublesome for us to seek out one another, at the very least by some type of commerce settlement.”
Exploring the EU, China, India, and Brics-plus
In response to the challenges posed by the tariffs, Stern says South Africa ought to urgently diversify its commerce relationships and discover new markets.
The European Union (EU) stays South Africa’s largest buying and selling accomplice, and strengthening this relationship is “an excellent place to start out”.
“We have already got a deep historic relationship with the EU. They’ve reached out to us, and what was lately fairly a frosty relationship has all of the sudden turn into tremendous pleasant,” he says.
Learn: Tariff hikes: Hunt for brand new agricultural markets should start now
Moreover, South Africa ought to concentrate on enhancing commerce ties with China and India, each of that are among the many fastest-growing economies globally.
“We export two or three merchandise to them, nevertheless it’s principally commodity-based. So we must always begin partaking with new potential buying and selling companions, notably India, to seek out methods to shift a few of what we at the moment export to the US into these newer, and faster-growing markets,” Stern suggests.
There’s additionally vital potential for regional commerce. “We have now a nascent free commerce settlement [the African Continental Free Trade Agreement] in place throughout all of Africa. Investing extra effort and time in coping with excellent obstacles to commerce in Africa is equally vital.”
The Brics-plus grouping additionally gives potential for deeper financial collaboration, though current commerce agreements inside Brics are very restricted.
“We have now no commerce settlement with any Brics nation of any substance. Now may be a good suggestion to start out desirous about that.”
In gentle of those challenges, South Africa must shift its narrative from merely assessing the harm brought on by Trump’s tariffs to figuring out new alternatives.
“Our evaluation wants to maneuver on from the ‘destruction’ and we must always begin to consider the place a few of these openings and new alternatives would possibly emerge on account of the worldwide shifts.”
Pay attention/learn: US tariffs might devastate Japanese Cape auto sector
Observe Moneyweb’s in-depth finance and enterprise information on WhatsApp right here.
South Africa needs to be way more involved concerning the world influence of a commerce warfare between the world’s greatest economies, the US and China, than the shorter-term influence of the Trump administration’s tariffs on exports to the US.
That is the phrase from Matthew Stern, director and head of commerce and regional integration at DNA Economics, talking at a PSG Suppose Large webinar on Wednesday on the subject ‘Trump, tariffs and commerce’.
ADVERTISEMENT
CONTINUE READING BELOW
Learn/hear:
Trump to signal order easing auto tariff influence
Tariffs have basically nullified Agoa – Tau
China seeks to up SA agri product imports
US President Donald Trump despatched shockwaves by the world on 2 April when he introduced a brand new tariff technique geared toward correcting what he perceives as a long time of unfair buying and selling relationships that drawback American producers and employees.
This included a ten% tariff on all imports to the US from all nations besides Canada and Mexico, and extra country-specific tariffs primarily based on perceived unfair commerce practices focusing on roughly 60 nations.
A commerce warfare ensued between:
- The US, which has imposed tariffs of as much as 145% on most imports from China; and
- China, which has imposed tariffs of 125% on US items in retaliation.
These excessive tariff ranges have created a mutual commerce embargo between the 2 largest economies on the earth.
Nearer to house, Trump imposed a 31% levy on items imported from South Africa, which, in keeping with Minister of Commerce, Business and Competitors Parks Tau, is tantamount to “nullifying” the African Progress and Alternative Act (Agoa).
Learn: Tariffs have basically nullified Agoa – Tau
South Africa has been one among a number of nations on the African continent which have benefitted from the act because it got here into impact in 2000, which gave it preferential entry to the US markets.
Agoa’s significance ‘overplayed’
In response to Stern, Agoa isn’t the “elephant within the room”, however quite how the widespread tariff imposition on nations across the globe will play out on the earth economic system.
“Agoa is mostly overplayed. Sure, it has robust political significance in being a helpful stick that People have wielded over the previous 20 years. However in financial phrases – and definitely in commerce phrases – it’s not that vital for South Africa.”
Stern factors out that about 25% of South Africa’s exports to the US are coming into the nation below Agoa.
“And even then, the preferences that we obtain by Agoa – the decrease tariff that we obtain relative to what we in any other case would have obtained on these exports – aren’t notably massive.”
He acknowledges that motorcar exports and agricultural produce are actually susceptible and that it might disrupt some provides.
“Dropping Agoa could be an irritation, nevertheless it wouldn’t have devastating financial results.”
In distinction, the broader implications of a US-China commerce warfare, together with disruptions to world provide chains and financial development, pose a a lot larger risk to South Africa’s economic system, he warns.
He pointed to the Worldwide Financial Fund’s latest downward revision of South Africa’s development forecast as proof of this.
Pay attention/learn: SA’s 2025 GDP forecast’ approach under’ what Treasury expects
“As of this week, we’ve already seen the IMF halve their forecast development fee for South Africa for the following 12 months, from a paltry 2% to round 1%. That’s a 1% lower that we are able to’t afford.”
Susceptible sectors
Stern says South Africa’s motorcar and citrus sectors are notably susceptible to the brand new tariffs.
“Automobiles benefitted from Agoa and would proceed if Agoa will get wiped off the desk, however the sector goes to be in extreme bother if the 25% tariff, because it’s at the moment being utilized, continues.
“As for citrus, a good chunk goes to the US, and it’s going to be troublesome to shift these exports to different markets, as a result of provide chains are difficult. So, sure corporations which can be deeply invested, notably within the citrus sector, are going to be impacted most,” Stern notes.
ADVERTISEMENT:
CONTINUE READING BELOW
Learn: Volkswagen earnings plunge 40% as US tariffs cloud outlook
Little negotiation room
Stern notes that South Africa’s means to barter beneficial commerce offers with the US is constrained by its comparatively small share of US imports.
“I don’t assume we’re going to be of giant strategic precedence. We’re a small marketplace for them throughout all sectors, and it’s the political pursuits that appear to predominate.”
He expects the US to boost political, quite than financial points, if and when a South African delegation meets with the Trump administration.
Learn:
US, SA to reportedly maintain commerce talks this week
Trump indicators US will skip SA G20 over land claims
“And that’s going to make it actually troublesome for us to seek out one another, at the very least by some type of commerce settlement.”
Exploring the EU, China, India, and Brics-plus
In response to the challenges posed by the tariffs, Stern says South Africa ought to urgently diversify its commerce relationships and discover new markets.
The European Union (EU) stays South Africa’s largest buying and selling accomplice, and strengthening this relationship is “an excellent place to start out”.
“We have already got a deep historic relationship with the EU. They’ve reached out to us, and what was lately fairly a frosty relationship has all of the sudden turn into tremendous pleasant,” he says.
Learn: Tariff hikes: Hunt for brand new agricultural markets should start now
Moreover, South Africa ought to concentrate on enhancing commerce ties with China and India, each of that are among the many fastest-growing economies globally.
“We export two or three merchandise to them, nevertheless it’s principally commodity-based. So we must always begin partaking with new potential buying and selling companions, notably India, to seek out methods to shift a few of what we at the moment export to the US into these newer, and faster-growing markets,” Stern suggests.
There’s additionally vital potential for regional commerce. “We have now a nascent free commerce settlement [the African Continental Free Trade Agreement] in place throughout all of Africa. Investing extra effort and time in coping with excellent obstacles to commerce in Africa is equally vital.”
The Brics-plus grouping additionally gives potential for deeper financial collaboration, though current commerce agreements inside Brics are very restricted.
“We have now no commerce settlement with any Brics nation of any substance. Now may be a good suggestion to start out desirous about that.”
In gentle of those challenges, South Africa must shift its narrative from merely assessing the harm brought on by Trump’s tariffs to figuring out new alternatives.
“Our evaluation wants to maneuver on from the ‘destruction’ and we must always begin to consider the place a few of these openings and new alternatives would possibly emerge on account of the worldwide shifts.”
Pay attention/learn: US tariffs might devastate Japanese Cape auto sector
Observe Moneyweb’s in-depth finance and enterprise information on WhatsApp right here.
South Africa needs to be way more involved concerning the world influence of a commerce warfare between the world’s greatest economies, the US and China, than the shorter-term influence of the Trump administration’s tariffs on exports to the US.
That is the phrase from Matthew Stern, director and head of commerce and regional integration at DNA Economics, talking at a PSG Suppose Large webinar on Wednesday on the subject ‘Trump, tariffs and commerce’.
ADVERTISEMENT
CONTINUE READING BELOW
Learn/hear:
Trump to signal order easing auto tariff influence
Tariffs have basically nullified Agoa – Tau
China seeks to up SA agri product imports
US President Donald Trump despatched shockwaves by the world on 2 April when he introduced a brand new tariff technique geared toward correcting what he perceives as a long time of unfair buying and selling relationships that drawback American producers and employees.
This included a ten% tariff on all imports to the US from all nations besides Canada and Mexico, and extra country-specific tariffs primarily based on perceived unfair commerce practices focusing on roughly 60 nations.
A commerce warfare ensued between:
- The US, which has imposed tariffs of as much as 145% on most imports from China; and
- China, which has imposed tariffs of 125% on US items in retaliation.
These excessive tariff ranges have created a mutual commerce embargo between the 2 largest economies on the earth.
Nearer to house, Trump imposed a 31% levy on items imported from South Africa, which, in keeping with Minister of Commerce, Business and Competitors Parks Tau, is tantamount to “nullifying” the African Progress and Alternative Act (Agoa).
Learn: Tariffs have basically nullified Agoa – Tau
South Africa has been one among a number of nations on the African continent which have benefitted from the act because it got here into impact in 2000, which gave it preferential entry to the US markets.
Agoa’s significance ‘overplayed’
In response to Stern, Agoa isn’t the “elephant within the room”, however quite how the widespread tariff imposition on nations across the globe will play out on the earth economic system.
“Agoa is mostly overplayed. Sure, it has robust political significance in being a helpful stick that People have wielded over the previous 20 years. However in financial phrases – and definitely in commerce phrases – it’s not that vital for South Africa.”
Stern factors out that about 25% of South Africa’s exports to the US are coming into the nation below Agoa.
“And even then, the preferences that we obtain by Agoa – the decrease tariff that we obtain relative to what we in any other case would have obtained on these exports – aren’t notably massive.”
He acknowledges that motorcar exports and agricultural produce are actually susceptible and that it might disrupt some provides.
“Dropping Agoa could be an irritation, nevertheless it wouldn’t have devastating financial results.”
In distinction, the broader implications of a US-China commerce warfare, together with disruptions to world provide chains and financial development, pose a a lot larger risk to South Africa’s economic system, he warns.
He pointed to the Worldwide Financial Fund’s latest downward revision of South Africa’s development forecast as proof of this.
Pay attention/learn: SA’s 2025 GDP forecast’ approach under’ what Treasury expects
“As of this week, we’ve already seen the IMF halve their forecast development fee for South Africa for the following 12 months, from a paltry 2% to round 1%. That’s a 1% lower that we are able to’t afford.”
Susceptible sectors
Stern says South Africa’s motorcar and citrus sectors are notably susceptible to the brand new tariffs.
“Automobiles benefitted from Agoa and would proceed if Agoa will get wiped off the desk, however the sector goes to be in extreme bother if the 25% tariff, because it’s at the moment being utilized, continues.
“As for citrus, a good chunk goes to the US, and it’s going to be troublesome to shift these exports to different markets, as a result of provide chains are difficult. So, sure corporations which can be deeply invested, notably within the citrus sector, are going to be impacted most,” Stern notes.
ADVERTISEMENT:
CONTINUE READING BELOW
Learn: Volkswagen earnings plunge 40% as US tariffs cloud outlook
Little negotiation room
Stern notes that South Africa’s means to barter beneficial commerce offers with the US is constrained by its comparatively small share of US imports.
“I don’t assume we’re going to be of giant strategic precedence. We’re a small marketplace for them throughout all sectors, and it’s the political pursuits that appear to predominate.”
He expects the US to boost political, quite than financial points, if and when a South African delegation meets with the Trump administration.
Learn:
US, SA to reportedly maintain commerce talks this week
Trump indicators US will skip SA G20 over land claims
“And that’s going to make it actually troublesome for us to seek out one another, at the very least by some type of commerce settlement.”
Exploring the EU, China, India, and Brics-plus
In response to the challenges posed by the tariffs, Stern says South Africa ought to urgently diversify its commerce relationships and discover new markets.
The European Union (EU) stays South Africa’s largest buying and selling accomplice, and strengthening this relationship is “an excellent place to start out”.
“We have already got a deep historic relationship with the EU. They’ve reached out to us, and what was lately fairly a frosty relationship has all of the sudden turn into tremendous pleasant,” he says.
Learn: Tariff hikes: Hunt for brand new agricultural markets should start now
Moreover, South Africa ought to concentrate on enhancing commerce ties with China and India, each of that are among the many fastest-growing economies globally.
“We export two or three merchandise to them, nevertheless it’s principally commodity-based. So we must always begin partaking with new potential buying and selling companions, notably India, to seek out methods to shift a few of what we at the moment export to the US into these newer, and faster-growing markets,” Stern suggests.
There’s additionally vital potential for regional commerce. “We have now a nascent free commerce settlement [the African Continental Free Trade Agreement] in place throughout all of Africa. Investing extra effort and time in coping with excellent obstacles to commerce in Africa is equally vital.”
The Brics-plus grouping additionally gives potential for deeper financial collaboration, though current commerce agreements inside Brics are very restricted.
“We have now no commerce settlement with any Brics nation of any substance. Now may be a good suggestion to start out desirous about that.”
In gentle of those challenges, South Africa must shift its narrative from merely assessing the harm brought on by Trump’s tariffs to figuring out new alternatives.
“Our evaluation wants to maneuver on from the ‘destruction’ and we must always begin to consider the place a few of these openings and new alternatives would possibly emerge on account of the worldwide shifts.”
Pay attention/learn: US tariffs might devastate Japanese Cape auto sector
Observe Moneyweb’s in-depth finance and enterprise information on WhatsApp right here.
